Marat Safin Forum

Hope this topic isn't hiding around here somewhere.

I was comparing Marat's YTD stats with those of Djokovic, and beside the fact that Djoko is a bit better in most areas, there is one particular area which was staring at me.

Marat:

Return Games Won %: 20
Return Points Won %: 37

Djokovic:

Return Games Won %: 31
Return Points Won %: 41

The only players who have similar stats on return games in the top ten are Roddick and Gonzalez, but both win a bit more on their service games - Roddick especially (91% service games won compared to Marat's 80%). Gonzalez especially is very close to Marat in terms of stats, which to my mind means that that's the bit Marat has to improve in order to get at least close to the top 10 - because, really, Gonzalez hasn't been playing great tennis this year.

I wonder how one could turn those 20% into something more like Djoko's ratio, so let's say 27%. I suppose this come down to his concentration on key points/general inconsistency during the match. This cost him especially in the tie-breaks.

In terms of his service game, I guess fewer double faults could turn the stats into top 10 like stats. 141 double faults is too many, similarly to Djokovic who double faults a lot. Of course, there's a trade-off here between points won on second service thanks to the more risky serves and those lost on double faults, but with most opponents, it's better to just get the second serve in and let them finish the point.

If Marat can improve on these things (and I'm sure an improvement in return points won would also cause an increase in service points won on second serve, which would also allow him to risk less on his second serve) he can very well reach a position close to the top 10 players in the world, but all this can come down is him:

a) improving his service game
b) reducing the number of unforced errors

The "only" question left is how to do that.

Why is he losing again? Juan Monaco is not a man to lose to! what is happening, didn't I shout out loud, didn't I squeeze my fists as if it would help somehow to get another score, another win? 0:6 6:7 is no good, I think!

Another interesting stat!
(my compliments to Judio at MTF for the all the calculations)

This is a table to showing the Best Performers in 2008 for the Grand Slam Events using Race points.
Neither Del Potro, Simon or Roddick (finished year in top 10) feature in the Top 20.


GRAND SLAMS

(# - Player - Pts - S.Played)
1 Nadal 580 4
2 Federer 570 4
3 Djokovic 387 4
4 Murray 206 4
5 Tsonga 155 2
6 Ferrer 130 4
7 Monfils 120 2
8 Safin 111 4
9 Gonzalez 102 4
10 Schuettler 99 4
11 Youzhny 95 3
12 Nieminen 87 4
13 Wawrinka 82 4
14 Verdasco 82 4
15 Cilic 82 4
16 Mathieu 82 4
17 Blake 79 4
18 Davydenko 76 4
19 Hewitt 75 3
20 Fish 73 4

Thanks, Alex - that sure is interesting!

Thank you, Alex! These are very interesting stats without doubt. =)

Well when I yell at the TV and squeeze my fists the only thing it does is gets me frustrated and I feel a bit silly afterwards for going so loco over a match. We all lose my friend, in life we can't always win everything! Besides, that would take the fun out of winning.
Inresting stat's alex, thanks for posting.

Comparing those stats up there with this year's - they're basically the same in terms of returns.

Sadly though, most of the stats put him somewhere around No. 50 in all regards (except some of the service figures), which practically reflects where he is right now. The up to date, unofficial ATP Race sets him at no. 71 though, seeing how Moscow will come up later where Marat managed the final.

I'm still kind of worried that he might finish his career outside the top 100, which wouldn't be all that nice. Ideally a top 50 spot would have been great, but it seems hard to achieve now. Maybe one last great tournament (or two, or three )...but who knows.

I cant figure out para 2 .Big discrepancy between
the stats- around 50 as you put it (excuding some of the service figures) and the up to date (so-called) ATP race set at no 71?? different parameters??

i still am unsure about any solid correlation btw returns ratio and potential to
reach a good rank !! have you looked at the stats of Del potro and soderling?


Dont you think its a small time frame between 60 and 100 say 5 months ,for Marat to drop that far down below
100. Has he that many points to defend??

Sure if he gets a few tournaments on the upside things
will brighten up

I don't really feel motivated to search for correlations at this point, so I'll leave it there.

As far as falling is concerned, here is what points are left to be defended, with drop dates in paranthesis:

Moscow 350 (12.10.2009)
US Open 70 (14.09.2009)
ATP Masters Series Canada 70 (27.07.2009)
Los Angeles 80 (10.08.2009)

Marat currently has 930 points. Last player in the top 100 has 710 points.

So clearly, unless Marat manages to put in at least one really good tournament, or two pretty good tournaments, there's a real chance that he could end this year outside the top 100.

P.S. Difference between stats and ATP race is reasonable. I mean, you won't see someone who has top 10 stats and is only 50th in the ATP Race, but 50-70 is imaginable, as the difference is very small in terms of points.

Thanks for your work and reply

I do understand that it would be a bit much to
do correlation > You would need at least
a sample size of at least 10 players (10%)of the top 100
players inclusive of del potro and soderling to get
some dependable result on the hypothesis that there is correlation btw returns result ratio and ranking probability.

however it would be interesting to see what such
results could be!!

Seems that the points to be defended does
not seem insurmountable